Updated: Jun 19
Well, the big event is almost upon us and most of the, shall we call them “supporting awards“, have been handed out with BAFTA doing the honors last week. Because of COVID, this year’s lead-up has been one of the most interesting in years, with a greater diversity from the various critics groups and guild associations than we normally see. However, as the big day approaches, a consensus has emerged for pretty much every category. So here are my predictions with an occasional back-up where I think the voting is going to be close.
Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures).
Very strong odds here with “The Trial of the Chicago 7” still in with a slight chance following its SAG award.
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) (Searchlight Pictures).
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom)(Netflix) vs
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman)(A24)
The closest race in this years’s Oscars is too close to call. Two-time winner Frances McDormand will probably sit this one out.
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom). (Netflix).
Yuh-Jung Youn (Minari) (A24).
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) (HBO Max/Warner Bros. Pictures).
Nomadland (Searchlight Pictures) vs The Father (Sony Pictures Classics)
Nomadland‘s potential sweep of the major categories may include adapted screenplay. However, since the movie had relatively little dialogue, some of which was improvised by it's mostly non-professional cast, Florian Zeller's masterful adaptation (with Christopher Hampton) of his own play, "The Father" (which he also directed), with a